Monday, August 16, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, August 16, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

August 16, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Japan's Growth Weakening
- Obama Warns Turkey on Iran and Israel
- US-South Korea Begin Joint Exercise
- Russian Wheat Export-Ban Begins

Top of the Agenda: Japan's Growth Weakening

Economic growth in Japan weakened significantly in the last financial quarter (BBC). The country's export-led recovery appears to be wavering as the value of the yen appreciates. Stocks fell in Europe as slower-than-forecast economic growth in Japan heightened concern (Bloomberg) the global recovery is faltering. Analysts say Japan may have to take action to lower the yen's value against other major currencies. Weakening exports are not the only problem. Prime Minister Naoto Kan recently said Japan was "at risk of collapse" under its huge debts.

The news about lagging growth came amid reports that China has supplanted Japan as the world's second-largest economy (NYT). Tokyo said that the country's economy was valued at about $1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly below China's $1.33 trillion—and China is expected to continue its lead through the rest of the year. Japan has had the world's second-largest economy for much of the last four decades but China's purchasing power overtook Japan (FT) nearly a decade ago. However, on a per capita basis China remains far behind other large economies.

Analysis:

CFR's Benn Steil and Paul Swartz examine the cost of global imbalances from the perspective of the world's leading holders of foreign exchange reserves, China and Japan.

Background:

The Economist assesses whether Japan's banks will have trouble continuing to support the bond market.

MIDDLE EAST: Israel Removing West Bank Barrier

Israel has begun removing portions of the concrete barrier bordering the West Bank, highlighting the different trajectories (WashTimes) of the Israeli-controlled West Bank - where Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has limited power over 40 percent of the land - and the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority said it would end direct negotiations (Haaretz) with Israel if the settlement freeze is not extended beyond Sept. 26, but Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said continuing the freeze would be impossible politically.

Iran: The country said it will begin constructing a new uranium-enrichment site (AP) by March, once again defying international efforts to curb its nuclear development.

PACIFIC RIM: US-South Korea Begin Joint Exercise

The United States and South Korea began their annual joint military exercise intended to ensure the countries' alliance is prepared to respond to potential provocations (CNN). North Korea threatened to "deal a merciless counterblow to the U.S. imperialists" and to South Korean "traitors," in response to the military exercise. In a CFR First Take, CFR's Paul Stares and Scott Snyder say tensions on the Korean peninsula need to be managed carefully so that growing South Korean and U.S. intolerance for Korean belligerence doesn't lead to unintended military escalation. The Washington Post assesses a new player in North Korea's looming change of leadership.

Japan: New Prime Minister Naoto Kan observed the 65th anniversary of the end of World War II by shunning a religious shrine (NYT) linked to Japan's militaristic past and expressing remorse for the suffering the war caused across Asia.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: UN Calls for Faster Aid to Pakistan

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the international community to speed up delivery of food, medicine, and shelter to millions of people in flood ravaged Pakistan (LATimes). The United Nations said that $460 million is needed, but only $93 million has been raised so far. This CFR Analysis Brief says Pakistan's floods are likely to cause setbacks for the country's development and its fight against militancy.

Afghanistan: In an interview with The New York Times, Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of U.S. and NATO forces, argued against withdrawal in July 2011, the date set by U.S. President Barack Obama to begin at least a gradual reduction of the 100,000 troops. However, he called the overall war strategy "fundamentally sound" (WashPost).

India: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called for an end to violence in Kashmir (VOA) amid continuing protests that have lead to fifty-seven deaths over the past two months.

AFRICA: South African Opposition Move to Unseat ANC

South Africa's official opposition parties have merged in an effort to unseat the African National Congress (Bloomberg), which has ruled the country since the end of white minority rule in 1994.

Zimbabwe: The Rapaport Group, the world's largest gem trading network, said it would expel members if they sold diamonds from Zimbabwe's Marange fields (BBC)—even though the international trade ban against Zimbabwe was officially lifted last month.

AMERICAS: Obama Warns Turkey on Iran and Israel

U.S. President Barack Obama warned Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that his country stands little chance of obtaining U.S. drone aircraft unless Ankara shifts its position on Israel and Iran (FT). In an interview, CFR's Steven Cook discusses Turkey's cooling relationship with the United States and Israel.

Mexico: With the drug war escalating, one of the byproducts of the violence (CSMonitor) is drug traffickers' ability to co-opt and intimidate underpaid and under-protected journalists.

EUROPE: Russian Wheat Export-Ban Begins

An emergency ban on Russian grain exports (TelegraphUK) went into force on Sunday, raising fears that bread prices around the world could increase significantly. CFR's Laurie Garrett says concerns about global wheat supplies are sparking fears that price inflation in the wheat market could lead to a food crisis akin to the one in 2008.

Sweden: Wikileaks, which continues to defy U.S. Defense Department demands to stop releasing sensitive military documents, has applied to become an officially recognized Swedish publisher (UPI) in order to prevent whistleblowers who leak information to the site from being pursued in the courts.
 

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