Wednesday, November 4, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, November 4, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

November 4, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iranian protesters clash with security forces.
- Afghan policeman kills five British soldiers.
- Czech president signs Lisbon Treaty.
- General Motors drops Opel deal.

Top of the Agenda: Iran Clashes

Security forces clashed with opposition protesters (al-Jazeera) who were demonstrating against the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Wednesday in the streets of Tehran. The protests marked the thirtieth anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the U.S. embassy by student activists. Ahmadinejad's main rival, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, suggested that a protest rally be held in a statement on his website. Iranian officials were said to be shouting anti-American slogans, while protesters responded with anti-Russian slogans, al-Jazeera reports.

Hardliners had warned the opposition not to use the occasion for anti-government protests. Meanwhile, campuses across the country held protests nearly daily against the government of late in anticipation of the Wednesday rally, the New York Times reports.

Speaking before the anniversary, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei criticized the U.S. (al-Jazeera) over nuclear negotiations. "We do not want any negotiation, the result of which is pre-determined by the United States," he said.

Analysis:

Seth Robinson writes in the New Republic that Moscow's close economic ties with Tehran will make it hard to convince Putin to put pressure on Iran's nuclear program.

In the Washington Post, John B. Bellinger III argues the Obama administration should add the future of the Iran-U.S. Claims Tribunal to the list of issues to be discussed with Iran.

Background:

Iran expert John Limbert says it is possible that the way is being cleared for an eventual long-term dialogue between the two nations, but nonetheless urges caution in elevating expectations.

A CFR Backgrounder examines Iran's nuclear program.

MIDEAST: Israeli Settlements

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington wants Israeli settlement building in the West Bank to be halted "forever" (AP) during her visit to Cairo, Egypt. She has said, however, that the Palestinians should resume negotiations with Israel without the full settlement halt they demand.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Police

An Afghan policeman killed five British soldiers (NYT) in Afghanistan's Helmand province, raising concerns about the discipline of the Afghan security forces as they prepare to take a bigger role in fighting the Taliban. The deaths represent one of the highest British fatalities in one attack since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

Sri Lanka: U.S. officials are likely to question (al-Jazeera) Sri Lankan army chief Sarath Fonseka about war crimes committed during the country's recent war against Tamil Tiger separatists during Foseka's visit to the United States Wednesday. An earlier U.S. State Department report to Congress said the Sri Lankan government and the separatists committed human rights violations during the conflict.

AMERICAS: U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

Tuesday's two prominent gubernatorial day races in Virginia and New Jersey won by Republicans may be possible signals of voter discontent over economic conditions, the Washington Post reports. Independent voters who had backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 moved to Republicans this year, according to exit polls.

Honduras: Four of the six candidates in the November 29 Honduras presidential election have signed a social pact (MercoPress) to strengthen democracy, peace and freedom, one of several steps agreed upon to end the political crisis that has seized the country since a June coup ousted democratically elected president Manuel Zelaya.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S.-Myanmar Meetings

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his deputy, Scot Marciel, visited Myanmar Wednesday as part of the Obama administration's policy of engaging authoritarian regimes (BBC). The visit is the highest level contact between the two governments in more than a decade.

Asian Economies: The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have warned that the influx of billions of dollars in investment capital in East Asia may fuel asset price bubbles (WSJ) in Asian equity markets and real estate in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam. Governments' interest rate cuts and stimulus programs have contributed to the cash flow and risk of bubbles.

AFRICA: South Africa Land Distribution

South Africa says its 2014 deadline to redistribute one-third of the country's farmland from white farmers to its black majority has been pushed back (BBC) to 2025 because of lack of funding . At the end of apartheid, almost 90 percent of land was owned by white South Africans who made up less than 10 percent of the population.

Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe may escape censure (Independent) over its trade of blood diamonds due to a lobbying campaign by Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to intimidate a key witness during a meeting of the Kimberley Process. The meeting, intended to regulate the diamond trade, was expected to impose an export ban on Zimbabwe after evidence of human rights abuses in its diamond fields.

EUROPE: Lisbon Treaty

Czech President Vaclav Klaus signed the Lisbon Treaty (FT) Tuesday after the Czech constitutional court ruled it did not violate the country's constitution. EU leaders will now be able to move forward with a new EU governing framework.

U.S. Carmaker General Motors decision to cancel its sale (Bloomberg) of Germany's Opel to Magna International and Russia's Sberbank after months of talks is a blow to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who backed the deal, and leaves the fate of Opel's German 25,500 workers uncertain.

TRANSNATIONAL: National Security's Bio-Dimensions

The World Policy Review examines the national security implications of the so-called "Bio-Era," finding that more global cooperation is needed to confront pandemics and too much attention and resources are paid to the bioterrorism threat.

 

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