[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, August 10, 2010

 

August 10, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Gates Seeks Cuts at Pentagon - Sharp Rise in Afghan Civilian Toll - Hezbollah Leader Reveals Hariri 'Proof' - China's Landslide Death Toll Rises Top of the Agenda: Gates Seeks Cuts at Pentagon U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced plans to close a military command, restrict the use of outside contractors, and reduce the number of generals and admirals across the armed forces as part of a broad effort to rein in Pentagon spending (NYT). The cuts are part of his previously announced plan to cut $100 billion over five years from some areas of the Pentagon budget. The planned cuts, in an attempt to stave off deeper cuts by Congress, will not reduce (WSJ) the defense department's overall budget, but will be used to fund future weapons-modernization programs, with the aim of ensuring that future budgets increase only modestly. The Pentagon's total budget, including war costs, is projected to top $700 billion next year. One of Gates's proposals is to close the military's Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, VA, which employs six thousand people, half of them contractors. The command was created a decade ago and is charged with new training and getting the military services to work more closely together. Gates says much of that already has been achieved (NPR). In a statement of support for Gates's plan, President Barack Obama said the cuts would "help us sustain the current force structure (WashPost) and make needed investments in modernization in a fiscally responsible way." Analysis In his latest blog entry for Commentary magazine, CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot warns against cutting defense spending in wartime. He adds: "We should be careful about dumping the burden of 'deficit cutting' onto the Department of Defense while ignoring the budget items actually responsible for most federal spending." Andrew Exum, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, expresses dismay that the Joint Forces of Command will be shut down. In Foreign Affairs, Gates outlines the future of U.S. security assistance, saying in the future, the greatest threats to the United States are likely to come from states that cannot adequately govern themselves or secure their own territory. Background Read the transcript of Gates's press conference outlining the spending cuts here. MIDDLE EAST: Hezbollah Leader Reveals Hariri Murder 'Proof' Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, has made public what he says is evidence of Israeli involvement (al-Jazeera) in the 2005 murder of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Nasrallah said he would not hand the evidence to the UN tribunal investigating Hariri's death, because he did not trust it. The Washington Post reports on growing fears in Lebanon that indictments in the case, which the UN could release next month, could trigger a new political crisis or sectarian bloodshed. Israel: Defense Minister Ehud Barak took full responsibility for Israel's deadly raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in May when testifying before the state-appointed investigation panel. Haaretz reports that Barak's testimony apparently contradicts that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said discussions before the raid focused largely on the likely public relations impact, and the chance of violent confrontation was mentioned only in passing. PACIFIC RIM: China's Landslide Death Toll Rises More than seven hundred people have died (BBC) in a massive landslide in northwest Gansu province, and over one thousand people are still missing. The landslide came as China was struggling with its worst flooding in a decade, with more than 2,100 people reported dead or missing and millions displaced nationwide. North Korea: North Korea fired over one hundred rounds of artillery (ChosunIlbo) near its disputed sea border with South Korea on Monday, shortly after the conclusion of a massive South Korean military drill. The provocation came a day after the North seized a South Korean fishing boat and its seven-member crew, which is believed to have entered the North's exclusive economic zone. SOUTH ASIA: Sharp Rise in Afghan Civilian Toll In a new report, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said the number of civilians wounded and killed in the conflict has jumped 31 percent (NYT) in the first six months of 2010. The report says the sharp rise in deaths--the worst civilian figures in the past nine years of the conflict--were caused by insurgents fighting the government and the U.S.-led coalition. The Taliban and other insurgents were responsible for 76 percent of the casualties, up from 53 percent last year. Pakistan: The UN will launch an appeal (Dawn) to help Pakistan deal with its worst flooding in eighty years. A UN official said the disaster has now affected nearly fourteen million people--eclipsing the scale of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. At least 1,600 people have died so far. AFRICA: Kagame Set to Win Rwandan Election Early results show incumbent President Paul Kagame winning reelection (WSJ) with more than 90 percent of vote. The Economist examines Kagame's record and says there is little doubt that he has achieved a great deal on the economic front and as a regional actor. "It is his human-rights record that makes even his fans queasy," the magazine reports. Somalia: Government forces are fighting allies of the al-Shabaab militant group in the semiautonomous region of Puntland in northeastern Somalia. Although Puntland is home to pirates and human-trafficking groups, it has been largely insulated from the warfare that has ravaged Somalia in recent years, making it a relative haven for aid groups. But a recently announced alliance between an insurgent commander and al-Shabaab has raised fears that militants could destabilize the region (NYT). In this CFR Special Report on Somalia, Bronwyn Bruton proposes a strategy to combat terrorism and promote development and stability. AMERICAS: Stock Futures Fall Ahead of U.S. Fed Meeting U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday, due to nervousness ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy announcement (WSJ). The Fed is expected to renew its pledge to maintain record-low interest rates. Recent data have indicated that the U.S. economic recovery is slowing. Many think the Fed will likely resist pressure to buy bonds for the time being, but it may adjust the language of its statement to show growing awareness of economic uncertainty. Mexico: Former Mexican president Vicente Fox has called for the legalization of drugs (LAT), arguing that prohibition has failed to curb rising drug-related violence and corruption. Fox said legalization could reduce the power of the cartels. Current President Felipe Calderon last week called for a debate on legalization, though he said he personally opposed the idea. EUROPE: European Markets Fall European stock markets traded lower Tuesday (WSJ), pulled down by declining travel stocks and news that China's import growth had slowed more than expected. Adding to the downbeat tone was a paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that predicted that the U.S. "macroeconomic outlook is likely to deteriorate progressively." UK: Britain's trade deficit narrowed (FT) more than expected in June, as exports of goods to the European Union grew, while imports fell. The improvement offers some respite after a period in which the balance of trade has been a growing cause for concern. TRANSNATIONAL: Arab Opinion on U.S., Iran A new poll of Arab opinion finds that, for the first time, a majority in the region--including a sizable minority in Saudi Arabia--believes a nuclear-armed Iran would be a positive development in the Middle East (CSMonitor). The annual poll, conducted jointly by the University of Maryland and polling firm Zogby International, also finds that President Barack Obama's popularity has declined sharply in the last year. ForeignPolicy.com looks at the limits of the poll.

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