Tuesday, November 10, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, November 10, 2009

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

November 10, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-North and South Korean ships clash in disputed waters.
-Warning signs of Palestinian Authority's potential collapse.
-Maoist activists protest in Nepal.
-U.S. Democrats raise concerns over costs of healthcare reform bills.

Top of the Agenda: North and South Korea Exchange Fire

North and South Korean navy ships exchanged fire (NYT) in disputed waters west of the Korean peninsula, suggesting heightened military tensions in the region ahead of U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Asia this week. The skirmish left one North Korean vessel engulfed in flames, according to South Korean officials.

The crossfire was the first border fighting between North and South Korea in seven years. South Korean officials say a North Korean vessel crossed the Northern Limit Line, a sea border delineated by the United Nations at the end of the Korean War, which North Korea has never accepted. South Korea says it issued five warning broadcasts before firing warning shots.

North Korea says the clash occurred during a patrol boat's routine duty and demanded an apology (Yonhap) from South Korea.

Separately, the United States said Tuesday that it will likely send an envoy (AFP) to North Korea to jumpstart talks on dismantling the country's nuclear program.

Analysis

South Korean analysts say North Korea provoked the clash (NYT) to emphasize its interest in negotiating a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War before engaging in negotiations to end its nuclear weapons program.

In a CFR interview, Michael Green says the Obama administration is taking a cautious approach to bilateral talks on North Korea's denuclearization, noting Pyongyang's backsliding after the Bush administration adopted a softer tone.

In a GlobalSecurity op-ed, Scott A. Snyder advocates the need for more effective regional coordination on contingency planning for North Korean instability.

MIDDLE EAST: Palestinian Authority in Jeopardy

Palestinian leaders have warned (VOA) that stalled Middle East peace talks and the threatened resignation of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas could lead to the Palestinian Authority's collapse.

Iran: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced Tuesday (ILNA) that three American hikers arrested in Iran this summer have been accused of espionage. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton immediately responded (ILNA) with criticism of the charge and called for their release.

Yemeni-Saudi Clash

Yemeni Houthi fighters claimed control (al-Jazeera) of more territory on the Saudi Arabian border Tuesday after Saudi forces launched military strikes against the fighters last week.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Nepal Protests

Maoist activists in Nepal rallied Tuesday (al-Jazeera) as part of a two-week protest aimed at forcing the Nepalese government to resign.

Pakistan: Fifteen people were killed (Dawn) in a suicide bomb blast in the northwestern town of Charsadda.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S.-Japan Military Cooperation

The Obama administration says a U.S. military bases pact with Japan, which is being reviewed by Tokyo's new government, is in Japan's best interests (SCMP) and will continue.

AFRICA: Somali Pirates

Somali pirates seized a United Arab Emirates cargo ship (Reuters) carrying weapons to the country in violation of a UN arms embargo in the furthest pirate attack yet from Somalia's shore, according to EU officials.

Zimbabwe: The trial against Roy Bennet, a top aid to Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai charged with weapons smuggling, began Monday and is straining Zimbabwe's coalition government (AP).

AMERICAS: U.S. Healthcare

Democrats and economists say the potential cost of the U.S. heath reform bills, including the one which passed in the House Saturday, will likely conflict (NYT) with the Obama administration's pledge to cut health care spending by 1.5 percent over the next decade.

Columbia: Columbia says it will appeal (MercoPress) to the UN Security Council and the Organization of American States after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered his military to prepare for war to counter the military cooperation pact signed between Columbia and the United States last month.

EUROPE: EU Debt

European finance ministers meet in Brussels Tuesday (Deutsche Welle) in an effort to tackle excessive national budget deficits and coordinate exits from emergency economic measures.

Russia: Russia's central bank has warned investors (FT) that its currency, the rouble, will not continue appreciating indefinitely. The currency gained 8.5 percent in September amid rising oil prices and a falling dollar.

TRANSNATIONAL: Global Oil Supply

An International Energy Agency official says the world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates indicate, casting doubt (Guardian) on the organization's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published Tuesday.
 

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