Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 20, 2009

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 20, 2009

October 20, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Karzai expected to accept runoff in Afghan election.
- Iran accuses Pakistan of ties to suicide bombing.
- U.S.-China trade disputes continue.
- Turkey detains Kurdish group

Top of the Agenda: Afghan Elections Affecting U.S. Policy

According to American and European officials, Afghan President Hamid Karzai appears set to accept a runoff election (WashPost) after findings by an international audit stripped him of nearly one-third of his votes from the first round. This leaves Karzai with less than the fifty percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

The Obama administration--still considering the decision of whether to increase U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan--is debating (NYT) whether to push Karzai and his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, to form a coalition government to avoid a runoff altogether.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates told Japanese officials in Tokyo, Tuesday, that prolonged uncertainty over the Afghan government should not halt (NYT) the administration's efforts to decide on a new strategy and should not slow military operations there.

Analysis

The coordinator of President Obama's original Afghan policy, Bruce Riedel, says the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain a lethal alliance that U.S.-led forces must defeat in Afghanistan.

The Economist says diplomats in Kabul are worried that the International Election Committee (IEC) will refuse to accept the results or battle the UN-backed election committee's orders on legal grounds. A weekend of "long and acrimonious meetings between officials" on both sides suggests the IEC will challenge the results.

Background

A CFR Backgrounder looks at the Afghan national security forces.

An interactive CFR timeline tracks the history of the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan.

MIDEAST: Iran Accuses Pakistan of ties to Sunday Bomb Attacks

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Pakistan (Al Jazeera) of having ties to the suicide bombers that attacked a gathering of tribal leaders and Revolutionary Guard commanders in a southeastern province of Iran on Monday. The accusation came after Iranian state media reported that Pakistani terrorist group Jundullah took responsibility for the attack. Separately, Iranian officials announced (NYT) that the United States and Britain were involved in the attacks.

Iraq: The Iraqi parliament again postponed a vote (WashPost) on an election law that would organize expected parliamentary elections in January and serve as a milestone for American plans to withdraw U.S. troops.

Unresolved issues include how many seats the new parliament will have and how elections would be organized in the northern city of Kirkuk.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S.-Chinese Trade Disputes Continue

China's Ministry of Commerce has ruled to impose tariffs (WSJ) as high as 36 percent on nylon imports from the United States saying the imports are hurting its domestic industry. The announcement is the latest in a series of U.S.-China trade disputes after the Obama administration announced it would impose duties on Chinese tires over the next three years.

Indonesia: Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has been sworn in (BBC) for his second five-year term after a strong victory in July. He gained popularity in part because of a clamp down on corruption.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistani Blast

Two simultaneous explosions went off (Guardian) at Islamabad's Islamic University on Tuesday killing at least two people and injuring twenty others, despite heightened security across the country. Separately, Pakistani military officials said Monday that its offensive into the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan was gaining ground (WashPost).

Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka is threatened to lose (FT) more than $100 million in trade concessions after a European Union year-long investigation found that the country breached human rights commitments it had made with the EU, in exchange for lower tariffs. The shortcomings had to do with Sri Lanka's protection of civil and political rights in the twenty-five year civil war between the government and Tamil Tiger separatists.

A CFR Backgrounder looks at Pakistan's security forces.

AFRICA: Somali Pirates

Somali pirates seized a Chinese cargo ship (AP) carrying twenty-five people Monday about 700 miles east of the Somali coastline, according to the European Union's anti-piracy force. An EU anti-piracy official said he thought it was the farthest pirates had ever struck.

Sudan: Southern Sudan's ruling party welcomed the Obama administration's new policy (Bloomberg) on Sudan announced Monday, which calls for a peace accord between the country's north and south. The administration offered the possibility of dropping sanctions against Sudan if the country implements a north-south peace accord, brokered by the United States, in 2005 and refuses to harbor terrorists.

AMERICAS: U.S. Bank Pay Rises

Fringe compensation for chief executives at financial firms receiving federal bailout funds rose four percent on average last year, the Washington Post reports. The Obama administration's pay czar plans to curtail some executive perks in a ruling on compensation later this month.

Honduras: The latest talks on Honduras's disputed presidential seat have stalled (AP) over whether ousted President Manuel Zelaya can serve his remaining term before the presidential election in November.

EUROPE: Turkey Detains Kurdish Group

Turkey is holding (BBC) five members of a Kurdish peace group that entered the country from Iraq. The group was made up of both PKK fighters, who are seeking autonomy in southeast Turkey, and refugees from a camp south of Mosul.

TRANSNATIONAL: Temporary Workers First to Lose their Jobs

A new report by the United Nations' International Labor Organization finds that temporary workers were the first to be let go during the economic downturn.

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