Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 22, 2009

Thursday, October 22, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 22, 2009

October 22, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iranian negotiators draft nuclear deal
- Afghan opponent to President Karzai agrees to runoff election
- U.S. pay czar slashes executive pay
- EU prepares arms embargo and sanctions against Guinea

Top of the Agenda: Iranian Negotiators Accept a Draft Deal

Iranian negotiators accepted a draft deal (WashPost) to transfer the bulk of Iran's enriched uranium out of the country. The deal would require Iran to send nearly 80 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia, delaying its attempts to develop a nuclear weapon. The agreement has to be confirmed by the government in Tehran and would allow the Obama administration more time for talks with Iran.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei set a deadline of Friday (LAT) on the draft agreement, which is being circulated among the negotiators. Under the plan, Iran's supply of low-enriched uranium would be sent from Russia on to France to be further refined and turned into plates for use in a medical research reactor.

Analysis

The Los Angeles Times reports that the deal could buy time for Iran to continue expanding its ability to produce nuclear fuel at its Natanz facility. According to Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation specialist at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, the deal is a big step for the Obama administration because it "implicitly accepts Iran's right to enrichment."

Haaretz's Yossi Melman says the agreement is a big win for Iran because it removes all justification for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites.

A Financial Times op-ed by CFR's Richard Haass asserts that Iran's political character--not just its capability--should define the international community's response to its nuclear ambitions.

Background

A new CFR Backgrounder explores concerns over Iran's nuclear program and its ballistic missile program.

MIDEAST: Iran Denies Israel Talks

Iran has denied reports (Al Jazeera) that its officials held secret talks with Israel about a deal to declare the Middle East a nuclear-free zone.

Haaretz reported Thursday that a representative from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Soltanieh met in Cairo in late September.

Goldstone Report: U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice held talks (AFP) with Israeli officials on Wednesday, leading up to the expected General Assembly debate on the Goldstone report accusing Israel and Palestinian militants of war crimes during the Gaza war. Rice said the United States would continue to stand by Israel in fighting the report.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Election Runoff

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's top rival Abdullah Abdullah agreed to a runoff election Wednesday (WashPost) after Karzai reluctantly agreed on Tuesday. The runoff is scheduled for November 7, though experts worry about potential problems including the possibility of Taliban violence or intimidation and how to find enough unbiased polling monitors.

India: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Thursday that poor countries cannot sacrifice their development (AP) for a new deal on climate change. India and China agreed Wednesday on a deal to stand together on climate change at the December summit in Copenhagen. The two countries agreed to slow growth of greenhouse gas emissions and to not make binding agreements that would be subject to international monitoring.

PACIFIC RIM: China’s Economic Growth

China's gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent (WSJ) in the third quarter from a year earlier, a sign that China's recovery is becoming more sustainable and that Chinese consumers are willing to spend more. Chinese officials had previously warned that the country's rebound was still shaky but now seem confident in calling a solid recovery.

Japan: The Obama administration warned the new Japanese government (WashPost) on Wednesday that it would be "immensely complicated and counterproductive" for Japan to pull out of its military realignment plan with the United States.

AFRICA: Ethiopia Drought

Ethiopia has asked for emergency food aid (AP) for 6.2 million people due to a drought that has also affected other countries in the Horn of Africa including Kenya and Somalia. Separately, Oxfam called for a different approach (Reuters) to the food aid system in a report published to coincide with the 25^th anniversary of the Ethiopia famine. The report calls donors to adopt an approach that focuses on disaster prevention rather than short-term emergency solutions

Guinea: The European Union is preparing an arms embargo and sanctions (Deutsche Welle) against Guinea after an estimated 150 anti-government protesters were killed and 1,200 injured during a crackdown by Guinea's military junta in September. The International Criminal Court has started an investigation into the violence.

AMERICAS: U.S. Pay Czar Slashes Bank Pay

The Obama administration's pay czar Kenneth Feinberg is expected to cut (WSJ) the average compensation for 175 employees at financial firms that received a significant amount of government relief. The ruling will likely draw scrutiny over whether the Obama administration is being too harsh or too lenient with Wall Street in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Brazil: Violence continues (BBC) in Rio de Janeiro between drug gangs and armed police after a police helicopter was gunned down over the weekend by suspected drug traffickers. The violence comes weeks after Rio was chosen to host the 2016 Olympics.

EUROPE: Bosnian Serb Leader to Boycott ICTY Trial

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic told the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague he plans to boycott (BBC) the start of his trial Monday. He is charged with genocide war crimes and crimes against humanity dating back to the Bosnian war.

EU: Environmental ministers for the European Union met Wednesday to firm up their positions (EU Observer) on tackling climate change ahead of the United Nations conference in Copenhagen in December. EU finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on climate financing a day earlier.

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