Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 26, 2009

Monday, October 26, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 26, 2009

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October 26, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- United Nations inspects Iran's Qom facility.
- 132 people killed in Baghdad bombings.
- South Korea sends food aid to North Korea.
- U.S. Senate may release healthcare bill this week.

Top of the Agenda: Iran Nuclear Inspections

Officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency inspected one of Iran's uranium enrichment sites (Reuters) near Qom on Sunday, as world leaders await an official response from Iran on a UN-brokered nuclear deal. Iranian leaders failed to respond in time to meet the deadline for the deal on Friday. Iran announced the existence of the secret site near Qom last month.

The New York Times reports that both Iran and the United States are concerned that they are being trapped by the deal. Iran is concerned that the United States is cheating it out of nuclear fuel that has garnered power and attention for the country. The Obama administration worries that Iran is trying to prolong the administration's offer of engagement to buy time for a secret nuclear bomb program.

Analysis:

CFR President Richard Haass, in a Financial Times op-ed, argues that Iran's political character--not just its capability--should define the international community's response to its nuclear ambitions.

The Christian Science Monitor says Iran's decision to delay its response to the nuclear deal may "be playing for better terms in a deal it will ultimately accept."

In an interview with CFR, expert David Albright says the preliminary agreement by which Iran will ship low-enriched uranium to Russia "allows time for negotiations" on its nuclear program, but warns Iran might still block the plan's implementation.

Background:

A CFR Backgrounder looks at Iran's nuclear program.

MIDEAST: Iraq Bombing

Two car bombs hit three government buildings and killed 132 people in Bagdad on Sunday. The Washington Post reports that the violence signals a new strategy to undermine Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's ability to govern as the United States pulls out of the country.

CFR's Stephen Biddle warns of the consequences of U.S. forces withdrawing too early from Iraq.

PACIFIC RIM: South Korea Aids North Korea

South Korea offers to ship 10,000 tons of corn to North Korea on Monday in a conciliatory gesture (NYT), the first government-funded humanitarian aid between the countries in two years. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak had made large aid shipments contingent on talks to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program after he took office last year.

At a CFR meeting in September, Lee outlined his administration's policy toward North Korea.

East Asian Economies: President of the Asian Development Bank Haruhiko Kuroda said China, Japan, and other East Asian countries must coordinate their currency movements to prevent the sharp fluctuations (FT) that have increased trade tensions in the region.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Election Runoff

Opponent to President Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah may boycott Afghanistan's upcoming runoff election if his request to remove allegedly biased election commission officials (WashPost) isn't met. Abdullah agreed to participate in the November 7 runoff last week. Separately, fourteen Americans were killed in two helicopter crashes (NYT) in Afghanistan on Monday.

Pakistan: Education minister for Pakistan's Balochistan province was shot and killed (Al Jazeera) by armed attackers on Sunday. The Balochistan Liberation United Front, a local militant group, claimed responsibility shortly after the attack.

AFRICA: Tunisian Presidential Election

Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali won a fifth term in office in a landslide election (Al Jazeera) on Monday according to initial results. International human rights groups have criticized the election for taking place amid repressions of media, political parties, and rule of law.

Nigeria: The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) called for an indefinite cease-fire (Vanguard) Monday after the Nigerian government said it would engage in dialogue with the rebel group about peace in the NigerDelta region. 15,000 militants have laid down their arms so far in a government amnesty program.

This CFR Backgrounder profiles the militant group.

AMERICAS: U.S. Healthcare

The U.S. Senate is on the verge of unveiling its version (WSJ) of a healthcare overhaul bill, which would fine employers who fail to provide healthcare for employees. The legislation could go public as early as Tuesday.

Uruguay: A former left-wing guerilla leader Jose Mujica has taken a strong lead (BBC ) in exit polls from Sunday's presidential election but could fall short of the 50 percent majority needed to avoid a runoff with his opponent Luis Alberto Lacalle.

EUROPE: Ex-Bosnian Serb Leader Boycotts Trial

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic boycotted the opening (Guardian) of his trial at the special UN war crimes tribunal on Monday in the Hague. Karadzic is charged with genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity during the Yugoslav war.

Britain: New economic data indicates that economic recovery in the United Kingdom is lagging behind some European countries (EU Observer) such as France and Germany.

TRANSNATIONAL: New Research on Election Rigging

The Economist reports that two Oxford political scientists have offered new research on how many countries rig elections and why. The research finds that economic performance greatly impacts an incumbent's chance of being reelected, increasing his or her tenure by roughly three years.

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