Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 1

Thursday, October 1, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 1

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Talks between Iran and World powers kick off in Geneva.
- Earthquake kills hundreds in Indonesia.
- Obama administration implements new emissions rule.
- Israel to release prisoners in exchange for proof of life of Israeli soldier.

Top of the Agenda: Iran Talks with World Powers

Iran meets with the five members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union, today in Geneva, to discuss Iran's nuclear program (WashPost). The global powers hope to negotiate the opening of the newly disclosed Iranian nuclear facility to inspectors.

Officials in Tehran have said (PRESS TV) Iran "will not compromise" on its nuclear program.

Washington also would like Iran to agree to participate in bilateral talks on a "broader relationship," the New York Times reports, including trade and Tehran's support for Islamic terrorist and militant groups.

U.S. officials say the international talks may include (LAT) a rare one-on-one session between the Americans and Iranians.

Analysis

In an interview with CFR, Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Manouchehr Mottaki, said Iran is hoping the multilateral talks in Geneva will trigger a broader dialogue of cooperation.

Political scientist Joseph Nye says in an interview with CFR that the Obama administration's emphasis on multilateralism raises the prospects for dealing with Iran effectively on its nuclear program, but expects no diplomatic breakthroughs in the short term.

Robert Kagan says U.S. President Barack Obama should forget about Iranian nuclear developments and focus rather on Iranian instability and the regime's fight for survival.

Background

The New York Times reports that the possibility that Iran may be developing a nuclear weapon and that it could destabilize the region if pressed too hard, has raised alarm among Arab governments, especially Iran's neighbors in the Persian Gulf.

An interactive timeline traces developments in U.S.-Iranian relations since World War II. http://www.cfr.org/publication/17701/

MIDEAST: Israel Prisoner Deal

Israel agreed to release twenty female Palestinian detainees in exchange for proof that Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured in 2006 by Hamas militants, is alive. Israeli officials hope to procure Shalit's release before the end of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' term in January, Haaretz says.

PACIFIC RIM: Indonesian Earthquake

A 7.6 magnitude earthquake killed at least 529 people (NYT) and trapped thousands in the rubble of collapsed buildings. The Indonesian government ordered that aid be provided (Jakarta Post) for some two hundred thousand quake victims.

North Korea: North Korea said it will not adhere (Yonhap) to the new UN Security Council resolution on non-proliferation and disarmament. A spokesman for the North's Foreign Ministry said the country will never give up its nuclear weapons.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Strategy

The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is no longer confident that a strategy focused on counterinsurgency is appropriate for the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan expert Clare Lockhart tells CFR that the United States and its NATO allies must pay more attention to rebuilding the country's civilian institutions.

India: At a function to honor IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said nuclear power will play a major role (Press Trust of India) in the country's energy future, and called for the "concerted and collective efforts of the international community to promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy as widely as possible."

India environment minister Jairam Ramesh tells CFR India plans to outline unilateral greenhouse gas emissions cuts soon. But he says rich states must commit to greater cuts of their own before developing countries can agree on binding global targets.

AFRICA: Kenya ICC Trials

International Criminal Court lead prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said the Court will try (Daily Nation) suspected perpetrators of the 2007 post-electoral violence in Kenya that killed some 1,300 people. Moreno-Ocampo said Kenya will become "a world example on managing violence."

Somalia: The al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam militant groups are battling for control (Somaliweyn Media Center) over the port town of Kismayo in Somalia's south. The two groups had agreed to share power in the area, alternating control every six months, but hostilities ignited (al-Jazeera) when al-Shabaab refused to relinquish power.

CFR profiles al-Shabaab in this Backgrounder.

AMERICAS: Climate Measures

The Obama administration said it will require the biggest greenhouse gas emitters in the country to install pollution control technology in any facilities they plan to build or significantly modify, the Washington Post reports. The measure came as Senate Democrats introduced a bill that will--if passed--place nationwide limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

Peru: Peru's Supreme Court sentenced (MercoPress) former President Alberto Fujimori to six years in prison for wiretapping his political opponents and bribing lawmakers and publishers during his rule. In April, Fujimori was convicted of human rights abuses during the country's military campaign against the Shining Path rebel group, and sentenced to twenty-five years in prison.

EUROPE: Georgia-Russia War Report

A new independent fact-finding report commissioned by the European Union says the August 2008 conflict between Russian and Georgia began because the Georgian military attacked South Ossetia, but says Russia's actions during the war "went far beyond the reasonable limits of defense" and violated international law (RIA Novosti).

Romania: Romania's coalition government collapsed (BBC) after the leftist Social Democrat Party (PSD) resigned due to the firing of Interior Minister Dan Nica. Centrist Prime Minister Emil Boc sacked Nica, a member of PSD, for commenting on the potential for electoral fraud in next month's presidential polls.

TRANSNATIONAL: Climate Costs

A new World Bank study says the costs of adapting (BBC) to the effects of climate change will cost $75-100 billion per year in the developing world. Funding that adaptation will be a topic of discussion at December's international conference on climate change in Copenhagen.

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