Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 2, 2009

Friday, October 2, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, October 2, 2009

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October 2, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iran, major powers reach initial deal on nuclear program.
- Gen. McChrystal speaks out against proposals to scale back effort in Afghanistan.
- Thousands still trapped after Indonesian earthquake.
- Russia expels Israeli diplomat.

Top of the Agenda: Agreement Reached in Iran Talks

Iran, in talks in Geneva with six world powers, agreed to send most of its enriched uranium stockpile (NYT) to Russia to be used as fuel. It also agreed to allow international inspectors (WashPost) visit its newly disclosed nuclear facility in Qom within two weeks. The parties will hold a second round of talks before the end of the month.

U.S. President Barack Obama called the results of the talks a "constructive beginning," but called on Iran (PRESS TV) to "demonstrate its commitment to transparency."

The United States will likely push for new UN or unilateral sanctions on Iran unless Iran meets the terms of the agreement forged yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reports. The United States has also begun more strictly enforcing existing sanctions on Iran, cracking down on U.S. companies doing business there.

Analysis

A CFR Daily Analysis Brief rounds up expert opinions and divisions over the results of the talks and how long the apparent progress may last.

Political scientist Joseph Nye says in an interview with CFR.org that the Obama administration's emphasis on multilateralism raises the prospects for dealing with Iran effectively on its nuclear program, but he expects no diplomatic breakthroughs in the short term.

In the Financial Times, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) defends the Obama administration's choice to engage Iran diplomatically. Though he acknowledges that engagement "may well fail," he says the international community is in a position to compel Iran to "choose either pariah status or a more constructive relationship with America and the world."

Background

A CFR Backgrounder tracks the various U.S. attempts to effectively sanction Iran over the years.

MIDEAST: Gaza Resolution

Under pressure from the Obama administration, the Palestinian Authority withdrew a draft resolution (Haaretz) it planned to present to the UN Human Rights Council accusing Israel of committing war crimes during the conflict in Gaza last winter.

PACIFIC RIM: Indonesia Quake

More than eleven hundred people have died after a major earthquake (KOMPAS) in West Sumatra Wednesday. Thousands remain trapped in the rubble of collapsed buildings. A 6.8 magnitude quake hit Sumatra on Thursday, but there were no deaths reported.

Philippines: Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo announced she had placed the country in a "state of calamity" (Philippine Star) as it prepares for Typhoon Pepeng. The Philippines was battered just last week by Tropical Storm Ketsana, which killed 293 people (AFP).

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghanistan Strategy

In a speech at London's Institute for Strategic Studies, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, rejected suggestions (NYT) that the war there be scaled back to focus on hunting al-Qaeda. That proposal, backed by Vice President Joe Biden, among others, is seen as an alternative to McChrystal's call for up to forty thousand additional troops to be sent to Afghanistan.

Six analysts -- Peter R. Mansoor, Andrew J. Bacevich, Amin Tarzi, Thomas E. Ricks, Candace Rondeaux, and John A. Nagl -- offer a range of strategic choices for U.S. planners in Afghanistan.

Helmand: A NATO airstrike on a compound in Helmand province killed a civilian family of six, the Washington Post reports. The U.S. military said the airstrike was ordered after troops took fire from the compound.

AFRICA: Guinean Political Crisis

Guinean opposition leaders rejected a call (al-Jazeera) by military ruler Moussa Dadis Camara to forge a national unity government. Camara's proposal came after security forces killed at least 157 opposition protesters.

Zimbabwe: The International Monetary Fund projected that Zimbabwe's economy will expand by 3.7 percent (ZimOnline) this year after a 14.1 percent contraction in 2008. The growth will be the first economic expansion in the country since 1997.

AMERICAS: Indigenous Protests in Ecuador

One person was killed and at least forty-nine others injured when Ecuadorean police clashed with indigenous protestors (Reuters) in Quito. The demonstrators were protesting against proposed policies that they say amount to the privatization of the country's water supply.

Argentina: An Argentine federal judge charged former President Carlos Menem and his brother, Munir Menem, with obstructing an inquiry (Buenos Aires Herald) into a 1994 terrorist attack on a Jewish center in Buenos Aires that killed eighty-five people. The judge also ordered the assets of the two men frozen.

EUROPE: Russia Expels Israeli Diplomat

Russia expelled Israeli envoy Shmuel Polishuk, accusing him of espionage (Jerusalem Post). Polishuk was serving in Nativ, a body aimed at encouraging immigration from the former Soviet Union to Israel.

Greece: Greeks will vote in national elections (WSJ) Sunday to choose a new government. They will choose between the center-right New Democracy government, which has pledged to liberalize the economy, and the opposition socialist party, Pasok, which is leading in opinion polls.

TRANSNATIONAL: Life Expectancy

New research from a group of Danish scientists found most babies born in rich countries this century will live to be at least a hundred years old (AP). Life expectancy is steadily increasing in most countries, the study shows.

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